全国社会组织连年减少，寒冬已至还是“大浪淘沙”？
<div style="max-width:677px;overflow:hidden;"><p style="line-height: 2em;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">作者：张以勋（公益慈善论坛联合创始人、主编）</span></span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">做公益这行的人或许都有个感觉：身边的组织，好像越来越少了。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">这不是错觉，是实打实的数据。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">截至2024年底，全国社会组织总量降到了87.18万个，比前一年少了1.11%。民办非企业单位（也就是社会服务机构）跌得最狠，同比下降3.61%。到了2025年底，总数更是滑到了<span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">83.4万家</span>。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">基金会那边也不乐观。2025年，全国新成立的基金会数量，第一次少于关门的数量——负增长，来了。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">连续几年往下掉，风向已经彻底变了。不少圈内人开始嘀咕：公益慈善的“黄金时代”是不是翻篇了？行业要“凉”了吗？</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span leaf="">别急着下结论。数字背后，门道深着呢。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;"><br></span></p><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section data-id="169128" data-tools="135编辑器" style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;border: 0px none;z-index: 0;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 10px auto;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;display: flex;align-items: center;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;flex-shrink: 0;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;font-size: 16px;color: #ffffff;text-align: center;width: 42px;height: 42px;border-radius: 100%;background-color: #ed1c25;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing:border-box;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">0</span></strong><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">1</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: -5px 20px -5px auto;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;width: 20px;box-sizing:border-box;"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 48 27" style="display: block;"><g data-name="图层 2"><g data-name="图层 1"><path d="M0,10.64A10.73,10.73,0,0,1,21.44,10h0c0,.13,0,.26,0,.4s0,.16,0,.24a10.39,10.39,0,0,1-.36,2.69C18.81,24.06,6.2,27,6.2,27a14.59,14.59,0,0,0,3.06-5.83A10.66,10.66,0,0,1,0,10.64Z" style="fill:#d8eef6;fill-rule:evenodd;"></path><path d="M26.53,10.64A10.73,10.73,0,0,1,48,10h0c0,.12,0,.23,0,.34s0,.2,0,.3a10.51,10.51,0,0,1-.38,2.76C45.28,24.08,32.73,27,32.73,27a14.59,14.59,0,0,0,3.06-5.83A10.67,10.67,0,0,1,26.53,10.64Z" style="fill:#d8eef6;fill-rule:evenodd;"></path></g></g></svg></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 8px 15px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;border: 1px solid #ef3a42;background-color: #ffffff;border-radius: 25px;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(237, 28, 37);text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:18px;"><strong data-brushtype="text" style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">三把刀，刀刀见血</span></strong></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><h2 style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">社会组织为什么少了？得从三把“刀”说起。</span></h2><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="168159"><section style="margin: 10px auto;overflow: hidden;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;"><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong data-brushtype="text"><span leaf="">第一把刀：政策“动真格”，清理门户不手软</span></strong></span></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;background-color: #ffdf56;margin-bottom: -2px;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box;transform: rotateZ(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-moz-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-o-transform: rotateZ(0deg);" data-width="100%"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 1px;background-color: #b9e2ff;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box;" data-width="100%"><span leaf=""><br></span></section><section style="width: 45px;margin-left: auto;margin-top: -24px;margin-bottom: 2px;box-sizing:border-box;"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">过去追求“数量规模型”，社会组织像雨后春笋。但从2021年《“十四五”社会组织发展规划》开始，风向变了：重点从“多不多”转向“好不好”。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">2024年10月，五部门联合发文，定调<span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">“一手抓发展，一手抓管理”</span>。2025年上半年又搞了专项整治。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">组合拳下来，效果拉满。截至2025年10月，全国整治“僵尸型”社会组织7.5万家，打击非法组织8000余个。2026年3月修订《社会团体登记管理条例》，业务主管单位可申请法院指定清算组——“退出难”的僵局打破。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">那些占着茅坑不拉屎的，混不下去了。连续两年不年检？三年公益支出不达标？撤销登记，直接出局。浙江、云南、江苏等地都在行动，随手翻翻民政网站，类似公告一抓一大把。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">监管严格是好事，但我担心“一刀切”。</span></span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">清理长期不活动的组织，我举双手赞成。但有些只是暂时困难，该不该给整改机会？现在“成熟一个、登记一个”，审查严了，却也把一些有想法但不“成熟”的团队挡在门外。</span><span leaf="">公益需要新鲜血液，门槛太高，那些有创新想法但资源不足的年轻人，可能永远没有机会把想法变成现实。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">更糟的是，非法组织打着公益旗号骗人，这种案子多了，公众分得清哪些是“李鬼”，哪些是真正的公益组织吗？公益靠的是信任，伤了就难补。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">所以，为了提质增效，“空壳子”该清就得清。但最后留下的，得是社会真需要、也能真干活的。</span></p><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="168159"><section style="margin: 10px auto;overflow: hidden;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;"><section style="font-size: 17px;color: #252525;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 17px;color: #0070c0;"><strong data-brushtype="text"><span leaf="">第二把刀：经济“卡脖子”，真的撑不住了</span></strong></span></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;background-color: #ffdf56;margin-bottom: -2px;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box;transform: rotateZ(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-moz-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-o-transform: rotateZ(0deg);" data-width="100%"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 1px;background-color: #b9e2ff;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box;" data-width="100%"><span leaf=""><br></span></section><section style="width: 45px;margin-left: auto;margin-top: -24px;margin-bottom: 2px;box-sizing:border-box;"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section></section></section><h3 style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">政策紧了，钱袋子也瘪了。</span></h3><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">政府购买服务越来越“挑食”。以前是“大水漫灌”，现在是“精准滴灌”。数据显示，<span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">80%的项目流向了10%的头部机构。</span></span><span leaf=""><br></span></p><p><span leaf="">大机构吃肉，中小组织连汤都喝不上。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">但问题来了——那些扎根社区、服务特定人群的小微组织怎么办？这些组织就像社会的“毛细血管”，服务的是大机构覆盖不到的角落。如果它们都消失了，那些最需要帮助的人，谁来管？</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">更要命的是，经济大环境承压，企业捐赠也在缩水。很多中小组织本来就没啥家底，经营模式单一：要么靠政府买服务，要么靠企业那几笔赞助。源头一收紧，人工、房租、项目运营，样样都要钱，样样都凑不齐。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">最典型的例子是民办非企业单位。做教育、养老、社工服务的，项目周期长、回款慢，抗风险能力弱得像纸糊的。经济一波动，连年检的人手和材料都凑不齐，最后只能被撤销。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">有人说，社会组织可以去贷款啊——说得轻巧。银行对非营利组织放贷谨慎得很，一看你没有抵押物，二看你的收入不稳定，贷款比找捐款还难。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">这就形成了典型的<span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">“马太效应”</span>：强的越强，弱的越弱。没资源、没能力的，要么自己退，要么被淘汰。现实很残酷，但这就是市场规律。</span></p><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="168159"><section style="margin: 10px auto;overflow: hidden;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;"><section style="font-size: 17px;color: #252525;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 17px;color: #0070c0;"><strong data-brushtype="text"><span leaf="">第三把刀：主动“体面退场”，其实是好事</span></strong></span></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;background-color: #ffdf56;margin-bottom: -2px;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box;transform: rotateZ(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-moz-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-o-transform: rotateZ(0deg);" data-width="100%"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 1px;background-color: #b9e2ff;max-width:100% !important;box-sizing:border-box;" data-width="100%"><span leaf=""><br></span></section><section style="width: 45px;margin-left: auto;margin-top: -24px;margin-bottom: 2px;box-sizing:border-box;"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section></section></section><h3 style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">当然，不是所有离开都是被迫的。</span></h3><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">有些社会组织完成了既定使命，目标实现了，主动办注销，走合规退出通道——这叫善始善终。还有些规模太小、业务重合度高的社团，自发搞起了合并重组，“抱团取暖”。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">这其实是个好现象。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">过去很长一段时间，社会组织是“只进不出”。注册容易，注销烦得要命——备案手续、财产清算、印章上交……一大堆程序能把人整崩溃。所以很多组织拖到烂尾也没人去办注销。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">现在退出机制理顺了，主动合规退出的组织也在增多。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">走得体面，比烂在那儿强。</span></p><h2 style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;"><br></span></h2><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section data-id="169128" data-tools="135编辑器" style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;border: 0px none;z-index: 0;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 10px auto;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;display: flex;align-items: center;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;flex-shrink: 0;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;font-size: 16px;color: #ffffff;text-align: center;width: 42px;height: 42px;border-radius: 100%;background-color: #ed1c25;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing:border-box;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">0</span></strong><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">2</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: -5px 20px -5px auto;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;width: 20px;box-sizing:border-box;"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 48 27" style="display: block;"><g data-name="图层 2"><g data-name="图层 1"><path d="M0,10.64A10.73,10.73,0,0,1,21.44,10h0c0,.13,0,.26,0,.4s0,.16,0,.24a10.39,10.39,0,0,1-.36,2.69C18.81,24.06,6.2,27,6.2,27a14.59,14.59,0,0,0,3.06-5.83A10.66,10.66,0,0,1,0,10.64Z" style="fill:#d8eef6;fill-rule:evenodd;"></path><path d="M26.53,10.64A10.73,10.73,0,0,1,48,10h0c0,.12,0,.23,0,.34s0,.2,0,.3a10.51,10.51,0,0,1-.38,2.76C45.28,24.08,32.73,27,32.73,27a14.59,14.59,0,0,0,3.06-5.83A10.67,10.67,0,0,1,26.53,10.64Z" style="fill:#d8eef6;fill-rule:evenodd;"></path></g></g></svg></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 8px 15px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;border: 1px solid #ef3a42;background-color: #ffffff;border-radius: 25px;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;color: #ed1c25;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:18px;"><strong data-brushtype="text" style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">别看总数，要看结构</span></strong></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">看到这儿你可能要问：那以后社会组织会越来越少吗？</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">大概率会。但这是好事。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">因为光看总数不够，得学会看结构。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">有意思的是，社会捐赠总额其实没怎么降。2024年全国社会公益资源总量达到</span><strong><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">5235亿元</span></strong><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">，比2023年增长11.74%。其中志愿服务贡献价值折合2371亿元，同比增长32%。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">钱还在涨，组织却在减少。怎么回事？</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><strong><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;"><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">资源正在往少数高效、专业的机构集中。</span></span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">那些治理规范、财务透明、能真解决问题的组织，不仅没被淘汰，反而获得更多公信力和资源。相反，那些成天忙活“少花钱多挂名”、玩虚头巴脑的，自然会被市场规律淘汰。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">所以，社会组织数量下降，本质上是一场行业洗牌。洗掉的是滥竽充数的空壳，留下的才是真正有社会价值的实干者。</span></p><h2 style="line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;"><br></span></h2><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section data-id="169128" data-tools="135编辑器" style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;border: 0px none;z-index: 0;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 10px auto;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;display: flex;align-items: center;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;flex-shrink: 0;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;font-size: 16px;color: #ffffff;text-align: center;width: 42px;height: 42px;border-radius: 100%;background-color: #ed1c25;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing:border-box;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">0</span></strong><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">3</span></strong></section></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: -5px 20px -5px auto;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;width: 20px;box-sizing:border-box;"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 48 27" style="display: block;"><g data-name="图层 2"><g data-name="图层 1"><path d="M0,10.64A10.73,10.73,0,0,1,21.44,10h0c0,.13,0,.26,0,.4s0,.16,0,.24a10.39,10.39,0,0,1-.36,2.69C18.81,24.06,6.2,27,6.2,27a14.59,14.59,0,0,0,3.06-5.83A10.66,10.66,0,0,1,0,10.64Z" style="fill:#d8eef6;fill-rule:evenodd;"></path><path d="M26.53,10.64A10.73,10.73,0,0,1,48,10h0c0,.12,0,.23,0,.34s0,.2,0,.3a10.51,10.51,0,0,1-.38,2.76C45.28,24.08,32.73,27,32.73,27a14.59,14.59,0,0,0,3.06-5.83A10.67,10.67,0,0,1,26.53,10.64Z" style="fill:#d8eef6;fill-rule:evenodd;"></path></g></g></svg></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 8px 15px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;border: 1px solid #ef3a42;background-color: #ffffff;border-radius: 25px;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;color: #ed1c25;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:18px;"><strong data-brushtype="text" style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;hyphens: auto;overflow-wrap: anywhere;word-break: break-word;box-sizing: border-box !important;cursor: text;"><span leaf="">未来怎么走？别怕，是好事</span></strong></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">对社会组织数量的下滑，没必要悲观。这是行业走向成熟的必然阶段。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">政策层面，继续强调“发展”和“规范”并重。2025年民政部启动了《全国性社会组织教育培训三年行动方案（2025—2027年）》，通过培训提升组织能力，推动从“规范”走向“高质量”。2026年中央财政支持社会组织参与社会服务项目的方案也已印发，地方性社会组织可以申报示范项目。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">政府并不是要“一棍子打死”社会组织，而是想引导行业从小散乱向专业化过渡。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">未来的机会在哪里？</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">第一，社会治理刚需。</span>2025年民政部部长陆治原在《求是》发文强调：社会组织是社会治理的重要主体，要发挥慈善在消除贫困、共同富裕、社会和谐中的特殊作用。这个定位很明确——社会组织不是可有可无，而是国家治理现代化的关键配置。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">第二，服务领域延伸。</span>新修改的慈善法首次专章确立了应急慈善制度；2026年初，民政部等11部门印发《关于推进互助性养老服务发展的意见》，鼓励社会组织参与城乡养老。机会依然在。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">第三，专业化和品牌化。</span>过去靠“讲情怀”就行，以后不行了。社会组织要懂项目设计、财务管理、法律合规、信息公开、舆情应对。只会喊口号的，只能被淘汰。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;">从“数量增长”走向“质量精进”，这条路不好走，但必须走。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;"></section><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">我理解政策转向的良苦用心。从追求数量到注重质量，这是行业成熟的必经之路。清理“僵尸”、打击非法，也是为了净化环境。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">但公益慈善的本质是多元和包容。需要专业的大机构，也需要接地气的小组织；需要规范的运作，也需要创新的尝试；需要严格的监管，也需要成长的耐心。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgb(27, 129, 214);font-weight: bold;">数量下降不可怕，可怕的是生态变得单一。</span>作为行业观察者，我希望看到的是一片既有“参天大树”、也有“灌木小草”的公益森林。大树提供荫蔽，小草保持水土，各有各的活法，各有各的价值。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">说到底，“大浪淘沙”本身不是坏事，怕的是浪太猛，把金子也冲走了。如果能做到精准识别、分类施策、不搞一刀切，给那些真正做事的小组织留出喘息的空间，那么这场淘洗就能留下真金。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">毕竟，公益这件事，最终看的不是有多少组织，而是有多少人因此得到了帮助，多少社会问题因此得到了解决。这才是我们真正应该关心的数字。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;"><span leaf="">祝愿每一个公益组织，都能活得有骨气，走得更扎实。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em;text-align: center;" data-pm-slice="2 3 []"><span leaf="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">— END —</span></span></p><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" data-pm-slice="5 3 []"><section><section data-role="paragraph" data-pm-slice="3 3 },namespaceURI:http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml},para,{tagName:section,attributes:{},namespaceURI:http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml}]"><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 0px;"><br></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 0px;"></p></section></section></section><section data-pm-slice="4 3 []" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px 0px -17px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;text-align: center;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px 7px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px;height: 50px;background-image: linear-gradient(rgb(255, 237, 220) 0%, rgb(255, 248, 243) 100%);background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;border-radius: 50%;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(84, 22, 1);line-height: 1.75em;"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section><section data-width="100%" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 306.5px;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(118, 69, 52);flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 1.75em;"><span leaf=""><br></span></section></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 30px 0px 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 249, 245);"><section data-autoskip="1" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px 25px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(49, 43, 43);background: transparent;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;clear: both;min-height: 1em;vertical-align: inherit;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(65, 70, 75);font-size: 15px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span leaf="" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">作者：</span></span><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(65, 70, 75);font-size: 15px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span leaf="" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">张以勋，青海人，中级社工，素食者，2006年创办自媒体平台“公益慈善论坛”（公众号ID：</span></span><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(65, 70, 75);font-size: 15px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span leaf="" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">loongzone2006），致力于公益慈善资讯传播与常识普及，由个人独立运营，无任何机构背景，未接受任何资助。</span></span></p></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 10px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;align-items: center;"><section data-width="100%" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 599px;height: 1px;background-color: rgb(118, 69, 52);flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 1.75em;"><span leaf=""><br></span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 0px 0px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 70px;line-height: 1.75em;"></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 2em;"><font color="rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)" face="mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.578px;">来源：</span></font><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-family: mp-quote, "PingFang SC", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.578px;">公益慈善论坛</span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p></div> 确实感受到行业在经历深度调整。不过“减少”未必等于“衰退”，可能更多是规范清理“僵尸组织”的结果。建议关注民政部季度通报，同时聚焦自身机构的合规与效能提升——寒冬里活下来的，往往更扎实。
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